:Product: 0208RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 08/0927Z from Region 3981 (N08W56). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 08/1816Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 08/1900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 08/0950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 133 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Feb), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (10 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on day three (11 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb). III. Event probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb Class M 60/60/60 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 20/20/20 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Feb 173 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 175/175/185 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 191 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 011/014-019/025-015/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/40 Minor Storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 55/60/60