:Product: 0209RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 09/0101Z from Region 3977 (N18W96). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (12 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 09/2053Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 09/1138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 09/1308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 336 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Feb), unsettled to active levels on day two (11 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb). III. Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb Class M 55/55/40 Class X 10/10/05 Proton 10/10/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Feb 163 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 165/170/175 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 191 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 020/025-015/018-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/40 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 60/60/55