:Product: 0210RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 10 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 10/0046Z from Region 3981 (N07W84). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (11 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 10/0417Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 09/2237Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 09/2354Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 658 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (11 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (12 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (13 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (11 Feb). III. Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb Class M 55/40/30 Class X 10/05/05 Proton 10/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 10 Feb 159 Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 160/160/155 90 Day Mean 10 Feb 191 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 014/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 016/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 015/018-012/015-017/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/40 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 60/55/60