:Product: 0211RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 11/0535Z from Region 3981 (N07W99). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 628 km/s at 11/0202Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/0153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 11/0049Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2077 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (12 Feb, 14 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (13 Feb). III. Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb Class M 40/30/30 Class X 05/01/01 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Feb 153 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 150/150/145 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 191 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 017/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 012/015-017/020-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/40 Minor Storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 55/60/55