:Product: 0212RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 12/1247Z from Region 3992 (S06W11). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 12/0038Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/0410Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/0602Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2050 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (14 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Feb). III. Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Feb 166 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 191 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 016/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 017/020-012/015-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/20 Minor Storm 25/20/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 60/55/30