:Product: 0213RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 13/1109Z from Region 3992 (S06W26). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 654 km/s at 13/0008Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/1903Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/1120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2426 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (15 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Feb). III. Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Feb 173 Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 170/168/168 90 Day Mean 13 Feb 191 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 012/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 017/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 019/022-011/014-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/25 Minor Storm 25/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 65/50/30