:Product: 0214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/0228Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 581 km/s at 14/1706Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 14/1531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 14/0128Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 6603 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (16 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (17 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Feb 179
Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb 185/190/190
90 Day Mean        14 Feb 192

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  019/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb  023/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  018/022-013/016-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/50/30