:Product: 0215RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 15/1936Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 700 km/s at 15/1744Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 14/2350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/0212Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4740 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Feb). III. Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb Class M 45/45/45 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Feb 184 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 190/190/185 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 192 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 020/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 020/029 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 017/022-010/012-014/016 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/20/30 Minor Storm 25/05/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 65/30/40