:Product: 0216RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 16/1838Z from Region 3998 (S14E66). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 681 km/s at 15/2231Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/0635Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/0536Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3933 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Feb, 18 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Feb). III. Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb Class M 45/45/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Feb 185 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 185/185/180 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 192 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 020/025 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 011/012-014/016-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/20 Minor Storm 05/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 35/40/25