:Product: 0217RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 17/0446Z from Region 3992 (S06W81). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 619 km/s at 17/0552Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1634Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4784 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (20 Feb). III. Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb Class M 45/45/45 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Feb 185 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 185/180/180 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 193 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 014/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 014/016-009/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/20 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 40/25/25