:Product: 0218RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 18 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 18/0108Z from Region 3990 (S09W37). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb, 21 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 18/0625Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/2053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 18/2051Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1394 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb). III. Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb Class M 45/45/45 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Feb 178 Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 180/180/185 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 193 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 009/008-007/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 25/30/20 Major-severe storm 25/25/10