:Product: 0219RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 19/1049Z from Region 3997 (N03W12). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 19/0135Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 18/2355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 18/2336Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1515 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb). III. Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Feb 178 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 193 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 018/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 008/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/10/10