:Product: 0220RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 19/2345Z from Region 3991 (S14W38). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 20/0439Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/0206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 19/2349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 307 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb). III. Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Feb 184 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 193 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 013/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 006/005-006/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10