:Product: 0221RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 21/1215Z from Region 4000 (N17E07). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 20/2107Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/2200Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/1927Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 356 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb). III. Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Feb 197 Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 195/190/185 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 193 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 005/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 006/005-005/005-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/20