:Product: 0222RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 22/0306Z from Region 4001 (N24W76). There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 22/0136Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/1608Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/2000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 382 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (23 Feb, 25 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (24 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb). III. Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb Class M 45/45/45 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Feb 199 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 195/190/190 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 193 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 006/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 005/005-006/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 10/25/25