:Product: 0223RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 23/1927Z from Region 4001 (N24W90). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 23/0701Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/0037Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 232 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb). III. Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb Class M 65/60/60 Class X 15/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Feb 210 Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 210/210/210 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 193 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 006/008-008/008-008/006 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/25/20