:Product: 0224RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 24/0702Z from Region 4000 (N17W34). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 24/1939Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 24/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 24/1737Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 254 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb). III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb Class M 65/65/65 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 25/25/25 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Feb 203 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 205/205/200 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 193 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 013/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 008/008-008/006-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/20 Minor Storm 10/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 40/20/30