:Product: 0225RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 24/2302Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 25/0054Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 24/2235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 25/1842Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 37 pfu at 25/0240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 209 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Feb, 27 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on day three (28 Feb). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (26 Feb), are likely to cross threshold on day two (27 Feb) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (28 Feb). III. Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb Class M 65/65/65 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 95/55/25 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Feb 190 Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 190/190/185 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 192 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 008/006-007/010-017/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/20/35 Minor Storm 01/05/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 20/30/50