:Product: 0225RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
24/2302Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27
Feb, 28 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 25/0054Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 24/2235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
25/1842Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 37 pfu at 25/0240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 209 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Feb, 27 Feb)
and unsettled to active levels on day three (28 Feb). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on day one (26 Feb), are likely to cross
threshold on day two (27 Feb) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day three (28 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     95/55/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Feb 190
Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb 190/190/185
90 Day Mean        25 Feb 192

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  008/006-007/010-017/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/35
Minor Storm           01/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/30/50