:Product: 0226RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 26/1242Z from Region 4007 (S12E20). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 576 km/s at 26/2037Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 26/1231Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 26/0505Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 25/2155Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (27 Feb, 01 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day two (28 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (27 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar). III. Event probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar Class M 65/65/65 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 25/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Feb 180 Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 192 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 011/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 008/010-017/018-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/35/30 Minor Storm 05/20/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 30/50/40