:Product: 0227RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 27/1236Z from Region 3998 (S14W84). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (28 Feb, 01 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (02 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 676 km/s at 27/0418Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 26/2123Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 26/2201Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 189 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (01 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (28 Feb, 01 Mar). III. Event probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar Class M 55/55/25 Class X 10/10/05 Proton 10/10/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Feb 170 Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 170/160/155 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 191 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 013/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 024/031 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 017/018-011/012-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/20 Minor Storm 20/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 50/40/30