:Product: 0228RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Feb 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 27/2324Z from Region 3998 (S14W84). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 847 km/s at 28/1828Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 28/0344Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 27/2311Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 489 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar). III. Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Feb 155 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 155/155/155 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 191 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 024/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 021/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 014/015-007/010-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 45/20/15 Minor Storm 25/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 65/30/25