:Product: 0301RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
01/0830Z from Region 4010 (N24E19). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar,
04 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 823 km/s at 01/1850Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 28/2257Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
01/0231Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 618 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (03 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (04 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Mar 145
Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar 145/145/145
90 Day Mean        01 Mar 190

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb  021/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  011/012-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/25