:Product: 0302RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
01/2301Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar,
05 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 01/2125Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 02/2016Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
02/0541Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1463 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Mar) and quiet to
minor storm levels on days two and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Mar 140
Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar 140/140/140
90 Day Mean        02 Mar 190

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  008/008-014/018-019/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor Storm           05/30/30
Major-severe storm    01/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/65/65