:Product: 0305RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Mar 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 05/1150Z from Region 4016 (S26E35). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 05/0100Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/1702Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 04/2142Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 651 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Mar), quiet levels on day two (07 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Mar). III. Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar Class M 45/45/45 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Mar 157 Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 160/155/155 90 Day Mean 05 Mar 189 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 009/010-005/005-008/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/30 Minor Storm 05/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/30 Major-severe storm 30/15/35