:Product: 0312RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Mar 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar, 15 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 639 km/s at 11/2108Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 12/0845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 12/0915Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2606 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (14 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Mar). III. Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Mar 160 Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 12 Mar 188 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 017/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 019/026-015/018-009/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 50/30/25 Minor Storm 25/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 65/40/30