:Product: 0313RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Mar 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 13/1858Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 13/1640Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 13/1821Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1561 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (14 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Mar). III. Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar Class M 45/45/45 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Mar 175 Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 165/170/170 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 188 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 018/034 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 024/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 021/030-018/024-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 45/30/25 Minor Storm 20/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 60/40/30