:Product: 0315RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Mar 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 670 km/s at 15/1907Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/2157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 14/2154Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4950 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar). III. Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar Class M 45/45/45 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Mar 178 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 180/178/175 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 188 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 022/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 017/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 013/015-011/012-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/40 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 55/50/55