:Product: 0316RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Mar 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 688 km/s at 16/0127Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/1618Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/1908Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5055 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Mar, 18 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Mar). III. Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Mar 186 Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 180/180/185 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 188 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 011/012-012/015-009/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/25 Minor Storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 50/55/30