:Product: 0317RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Mar 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 16/2103Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1133Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/1204Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6680 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar). III. Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Mar 204 Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 188/186/186 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 189 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 013/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 012/015-010/012-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/30 Minor Storm 15/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 55/40/40