:Product: 0319RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Mar 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 520 km/s at 19/1731Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 19/0335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 19/0319Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 596 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Mar). III. Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Mar 180 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 180/175/165 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 189 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 013/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 019/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 015/020-009/008-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/25/35 Minor Storm 20/10/15 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 60/35/50