:Product: 0322RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Mar 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 21/2108Z. Total IMF reached 30 nT at 21/2209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 22/0011Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 156 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (23 Mar), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (24 Mar) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (25 Mar). III. Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Mar 178 Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 175/170/175 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 188 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 016/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 024/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 039/065-015/020-022/030 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/35/25 Minor Storm 35/30/35 Major-severe storm 50/15/25 B. High Latitudes Active 01/05/05 Minor Storm 10/20/15 Major-severe storm 85/70/75