:Product: 0323RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Mar 23 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 22/2113Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/2036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/2349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 363 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Mar), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (25 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (26 Mar). III. Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Mar 168 Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 23 Mar 187 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 020/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 021/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 015/020-022/030-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/35 Minor Storm 30/35/30 Major-severe storm 15/25/15 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 20/15/20 Major-severe storm 70/75/70