:Product: 0327RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Mar 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar, 30 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1025 km/s at 27/1654Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 26/2340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 26/2154Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 416 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels on day one (28 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar). III. Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Mar 153 Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 182 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 026/048 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 023/034 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 018/025-013/015-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/10 Minor Storm 20/05/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 50/25/20