:Product: 0402RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Apr 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 02/0225Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 02/1201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 02/0913Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 26 pfu at 01/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1875 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr). III. Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr Class M 70/70/70 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Apr 180 Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 180/180/176 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 178 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 005/ 005 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 017/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 010/012-013/018-017/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/40/40 Minor Storm 05/25/25 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/60/60