:Product: 0403RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Apr 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr, 06 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 789 km/s at 03/0557Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 03/1937Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 03/1937Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 02/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 524 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Apr, 05 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr, 06 Apr). III. Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr Class M 70/70/70 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 15/15/15 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Apr 178 Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 178/176/176 90 Day Mean 03 Apr 178 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 016/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 013/018-017/020-008/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/20 Minor Storm 25/25/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 60/60/30