:Product: 0405RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Apr 05 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 05/1801Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 05/0206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 05/0150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2350 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (06 Apr) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr). III. Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr Class M 60/60/55 Class X 15/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 05 Apr 184 Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 180/175/165 90 Day Mean 05 Apr 178 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 019/033 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 032/044 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 017/004-010/004-011/004 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/30 Minor Storm 20/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 50/45/45