:Product: 0409RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Apr 09 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 613 km/s at 09/0248Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 09/0918Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/0625Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4866 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr). III. Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr Class M 45/45/45 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Apr 167 Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 160/155/155 90 Day Mean 09 Apr 178 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 020/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 017/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 011/012-014/018-015/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/35 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 45/45/50