:Product: 0411RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Apr 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 11/1226Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/2050Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3362 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Apr), unsettled to active levels on day two (13 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Apr). III. Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Apr 170 Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 160/160/150 90 Day Mean 11 Apr 178 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 011/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 015/022-013/016-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/30 Minor Storm 25/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 60/50/40