:Product: 0412RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Apr 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 12/2055Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 12/0911Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 12/1853Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3095 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (13 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (14 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (15 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr). III. Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr Class M 70/70/70 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Apr 165 Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 160/150/150 90 Day Mean 12 Apr 178 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 014/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 013/004-013/004-007/003 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/15 Minor Storm 20/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 50/40/25