:Product: 0413RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (14 Apr,
15 Apr) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class
flare on day three (16 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 13/0223Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 12/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 12/2128Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1149 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Apr, 15 Apr) and
unsettled to major storm levels on day three (16 Apr). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and
two (14 Apr, 15 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
Class M    80/75/60
Class X    15/10/10
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Apr 164
Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr 160/150/140
90 Day Mean        13 Apr 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  013/ 013
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  013/012-009/012-023/036

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor Storm           10/10/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    40/40/75