:Product: 0413RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Apr 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (14 Apr, 15 Apr) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (16 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 13/0223Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 12/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/2128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1149 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Apr, 15 Apr) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (16 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (14 Apr, 15 Apr). III. Event probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr Class M 80/75/60 Class X 15/10/10 Proton 10/10/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Apr 164 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 160/150/140 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 178 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 013/ 013 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 013/012-009/012-023/036 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr-16 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/25 Minor Storm 10/10/30 Major-severe storm 01/01/25 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/05 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 40/40/75