:Product: 0414RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (15 Apr,
16 Apr) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class
flare on day three (17 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 14/0716Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 14/0243Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
14/0304Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1464 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Apr), unsettled to major
storm levels on day two (16 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (17 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (15 Apr, 16 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M    80/75/60
Class X    15/10/10
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Apr 152
Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr 165/165/160
90 Day Mean        14 Apr 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  014/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr  013/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  009/012-025/038-019/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/35
Minor Storm           10/30/25
Major-severe storm    01/25/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    40/75/65