:Product: 0414RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Apr 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (15 Apr, 16 Apr) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (17 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 14/0716Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/0243Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 14/0304Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1464 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Apr), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (16 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on day three (17 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (15 Apr, 16 Apr). III. Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr Class M 80/75/60 Class X 15/10/10 Proton 10/10/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Apr 152 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 178 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 014/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 013/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 009/012-025/038-019/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/35 Minor Storm 10/30/25 Major-severe storm 01/25/15 B. High Latitudes Active 15/05/10 Minor Storm 30/20/25 Major-severe storm 40/75/65