:Product: 0419RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Apr 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr, 22 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 520 km/s at 19/0612Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 19/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 19/2058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 456 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Apr, 21 Apr) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (22 Apr). III. Event probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Apr 157 Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 160/165/165 90 Day Mean 19 Apr 175 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 011/ 011 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 016/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 009/010-006/008-023/035 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/35 Minor Storm 10/05/40 Major-severe storm 01/01/20 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/05 Minor Storm 30/20/15 Major-severe storm 40/20/80