:Product: 0420RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Apr 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr, 23 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 20/0206Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 20/1930Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 20/1901Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 801 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Apr), quiet to major storm levels on day two (22 Apr) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (23 Apr). III. Event probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Apr 156 Predicted 21 Apr-23 Apr 160/165/165 90 Day Mean 20 Apr 174 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr 018/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr 014/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 010/012-023/035-024/035 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/35/35 Minor Storm 05/40/40 Major-severe storm 01/20/15 B. High Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor Storm 20/15/20 Major-severe storm 20/80/75