:Product: 0422RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Apr 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 711 km/s at 22/0606Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 22/0115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 623 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Apr) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr). III. Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr Class M 40/40/40 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Apr 163 Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 173 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 024/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 016/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 016/020-014/018-010/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/30 Minor Storm 30/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 75/45/45