:Product: 0429RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Apr 29 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1148 km/s at 29/0549Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/0421Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 29/1917Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 698 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Apr, 01 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 May). III. Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Apr 149 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 171 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 006/005-005/005-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/35 Minor Storm 01/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 20/20/50