:Product: 0430RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 Apr 30 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May, 03 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 29/2151Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/1959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/0025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 337 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (01 May, 02 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 May). III. Event probabilities 01 May-03 May Class M 50/50/50 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Apr 148 Predicted 01 May-03 May 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 170 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 011/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 007/005-010/008-009/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/20/35 Minor Storm 01/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/30 Major-severe storm 20/25/50