:Product: 0501RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 May 01 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (02 May, 03 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (04 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 01/1702Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 01/1750Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/1626Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 340 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (02 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (04 May). III. Event probabilities 02 May-04 May Class M 50/45/45 Class X 10/10/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 01 May 152 Predicted 02 May-04 May 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 01 May 170 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr 014/ 014 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May 018/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 013/018-007/010-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/40 Minor Storm 25/10/20 Major-severe storm 05/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 55/40/55