:Product: 0502RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 May 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May, 05 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 667 km/s at 02/1021Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 02/0004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 01/2310Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1450 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May, 05 May). III. Event probabilities 03 May-05 May Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 May 152 Predicted 03 May-05 May 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 02 May 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 May 021/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May 027/034 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 015/018-012/015-014/018 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/30 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 40/35/40