:Product: 0504RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 May 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 May, 06 May, 07 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 874 km/s at 03/2134Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/2010Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 04/1441Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9364 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (05 May, 06 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 May). III. Event probabilities 05 May-07 May Class M 35/35/35 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 May 159 Predicted 05 May-07 May 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 04 May 168 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 020/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 019/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 014/018-010/012-007/006 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/15 Minor Storm 20/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 50/40/25