:Product: 0506RSGA.txt :Issued: 2025 May 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2025 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 814 km/s at 05/2114Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/1311Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/1718Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11876 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (09 May). III. Event probabilities 07 May-09 May Class M 45/45/45 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 May 156 Predicted 07 May-09 May 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 06 May 167 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 023/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 012/015-008/010-017/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/40 Minor Storm 15/05/30 Major-severe storm 01/01/10 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/05 Minor Storm 25/30/20 Major-severe storm 50/35/70